Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 2.321949 2.456529 2.603112 2.776315 2.977726 3.207680 3.494954
2025-10-19 2.172410 2.339301 2.528922 2.764481 3.055765 3.414147 3.906943
2025-10-26 2.079058 2.266562 2.486118 2.769245 3.136740 3.618394 4.342408
2025-11-02 1.978972 2.174224 2.407283 2.715303 3.128609 3.695649 4.609577
2025-11-09 1.911268 2.114514 2.361390 2.695225 3.157714 3.822105 4.976739
2025-11-16 1.855744 2.065326 2.323755 2.680336 3.188873 3.951984 5.384241
2025-11-23 1.805694 2.019603 2.286724 2.661720 3.210337 4.067143 5.802011
2025-11-30 1.776113 1.997663 2.278339 2.680346 3.286642 4.281807 6.515344
2025-12-07 1.710623 1.926803 2.201709 2.597548 3.199458 4.201179 6.519167
2025-12-14 1.674063 1.891810 2.171077 2.578094 3.208849 4.293447 7.001386
2025-12-21 1.635357 1.852515 2.132779 2.544948 3.192915 4.335796 7.375537
2025-12-28 1.629128 1.855230 2.151114 2.595150 3.316591 4.668829 8.928596
2026-01-04 1.628284 1.865926 2.182124 2.668557 3.492638 5.170341 12.215529
2026-01-11 1.600534 1.839358 2.159558 2.657876 3.519226 5.348273 14.601762
2026-01-18 1.579388 1.820864 2.147410 2.662354 3.573521 5.610231 19.368056
2026-01-25 1.543301 1.780916 2.103047 2.613008 3.521695 5.585301 21.151825
2026-02-01 1.518417 1.755587 2.078797 2.594646 3.527534 5.720062 27.960467
2026-02-08 1.496297 1.733398 2.058235 2.581022 3.541117 5.882438 44.475894
2026-02-15 1.474351 1.710842 2.036324 2.563951 3.546127 6.023017 114.406221
2026-02-22 1.463231 1.702872 2.035314 2.581100 3.621911 6.416599 NaN
2026-03-01 1.426796 1.658874 1.979978 2.504927 3.497912 6.107478 NaN
2026-03-08 1.407744 1.638802 1.959608 2.487005 3.495388 6.222129 NaN
2026-03-15 1.385997 1.614526 1.932382 2.456423 3.463938 6.229510 NaN